By Oliver Bogner — Managing Partner, The Advisory Investment Bank
If you own an HVAC, plumbing, pest control, landscaping/greens, fire-safety, restoration, roofing, or elevator/maintenance business—you might assume the best time to sell is “when I’m ready”
whenever that may be.
That’s a logical belief. But you’re making a serious strategic mistake if you ignore what is happening right now beneath the surface of the market.
The Warning Signal
A recent article by CNBC reports that private-equity firms are currently burdened with what are being called “zombie companies” — portfolio businesses that:
- barely grow,
- have weak cash flows,
- and crucially, can’t attract buyers anymore.
Losing Momentum
- In plain English: the engine that has been driving strong deals for essential‐service businesses is showing signs of losing momentum.
- PE firms are reportedly sitting on about $1 trillion of unsold assets that would typically have been exited in normal cycles.
- Holding periods have stretched to record highs (average ~5.6 years or more) rather than the typical 3-5 year window.
- The sell-side market is clogged, buyers are fatigued, valuations are under pressure, and exit routes are shrinking.
Your type of business has been highly attractive to buyers and roll‐ups: recurring service contracts, steady cash flows, hard to disrupt, fragmented market, immediate upside through scale.
These dynamics have powered high multiples and strong demand.
But because those same dynamics made you attractive, many buyer platforms rushed into your space during the boom period. As the market shifts, three big risks are emerging for you:
Valuation Compression Risk
When buy-side capital is constrained or cautious, multiples begin to drop. If buyers have too many assets stuck, they’ll pay less. That means your window to maximize value is shrinking.
Buyer Fatigue & Selectivity
If PE firms are already sitting on assets they cannot exit, they will turn very selective—preferring “safe bets”—leaving smaller or mid-sized businesses at a disadvantage.
Timing of Your Life Event
Many essential‐service owners are aging, ready to retire, or have been “just waiting a little longer.” But market timing isn’t in your control. If the broader M&A market softens, you may not get another window like this for several years.
Sell Now vs. „Wait Another Year”—What’s the Difference?
Sell in 2025/early 2026:
- Multiple strength likely higher
- Buyer demand still strong
- Competitive bid processes still accessible
- Easier to capture upside and structure clean terms
Wait until 2026/2027:
- Market could shift into “hold mode” as PE deals dry up
- Multiples may compress
- Fewer strategic buyers with dry powder willing to pay top dollar• More “zombie asset” dynamic: sellers may need to discount or accept weaker terms
In short:
The risk isn’t just that you’ll get a lower price.
It’s that you’ll get a much worse deal structure, more risk, less leverage, and maybe fewer willing buyers at all.
What You Should Do Next
- Get your business valued now—find out what you could command if you went to market today (with professional representation).
- Prepare your story and adjusted EBITDA—buyers will be asking for clean numbers, strong contracts, predictable cash flows. The better you prepare now, the fewer discounts you’ll get later.
- Build competitive tension—even if you sell in 12-24 months, starting the process now gives you time to prime your business, identify buyers, and set the stage for a top outcome.
- Understand the market conditions in your niche—look at buyer activity, comps, cash availability. Don’t assume “we’re too niche to matter.” You absolutely matter—your services are essential.
Why We’re Here
At The Advisory Investment Bank, our mission is simple:
Defend Main Street.
We work only with essential-service business owners like you. We don’t chase acquisitions. We don’t represent buyers. We are 100% on your side, and we know your industry, your buyers, your
KPIs, and what drives value.
If you’ve been waiting for the ideal moment—it may already be here.
If you’ve received buyer outreach, even if you’re not ready to sell, you owe it to yourself to understand your options. Because the window for top value may not last forever.
Ready to explore? Let’s talk
No obligation. Just clarity.
— Oliver Bogner
Co-Founder & Managing Partner, The Advisory Investment Bank
Defending Main Street. Maximizing outcomes for essential-service owners
